Showing 1 - 10 of 1,820
This paper provides a review which focuses on forecasting using statistical/econometric methods designed for dealing with large data sets.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284149
This paper revisits a number of data-rich prediction methods, like factor models, Bayesian ridge regression and forecast combinations, which are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting, and compares these with a lesser known alternative method: partial least squares regression. Under the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284202
uncertainties; and the resulting ensemble `integrates out' these uncertainties using time-varying weights on the components. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143720
the aggregate by using time-varying weights on the component forecast densities. In our application, we use the … combining the evidence from 11 disaggregate series outperforms an aggregate autoregressive benchmark, and an aggregate time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143736
. Our findings point to the importance of making real-time datasets available to forecasters, as the revision process has … examine the real-time predictive content of money for income, and we find that vector autoregressions with money do not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282871
In this paper we propose a strategy for forecasting the term structure of interest rates which may produce significant gains in predictive accuracy. The key idea is to use the restrictions implied by Affine Term Structure Models (ATSM) on a vector autoregression (VAR) as prior information rather...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284219
be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying combination strategies are introduced. In particular, a weight dynamics … assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures forevaluating density forecasts of US macroeconomic time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143763
We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143792
in low and high data frequencies and endogenous time-varying transition matrices of the country-specific Markov chains …-move strategy algorithm is defined to draw common time-varying Markov-switching chains. Our results show that the US and eurozone …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143832
In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions with and without an autoregressive component. First, we compare the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143848