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electrification of global economies. However, their markets are characterized by high price volatility due to supply concentration …, low substitutability, and limited price elasticity. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the price volatility … visualization methods, we identify key features for accurate point and density forecasts. We evaluate various volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015210001
volatility clustering in clock-time returns, even when trade- time returns are Gaussian. Finally, we highlight conditions on the … directing process which are required in order to generate proper volatility dynamics while simultaneously matching the … unconditional distribution of returns. In-sample fitting and out-of-sample realized volatility forecasting demonstrate the strength …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406341
to overall realized variation and their contribution to predictive regressions of realized volatility. We find evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282828
The topic of volatility measurement and estimation is central to financial and more generally time series econometrics …. In this paper, we begin by surveying models of volatility, both discrete and continuous, and then we summarize some … developments in volatility models, with focus on time varying and stochastic volatility as well as nonparametric volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282858
Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to … number of recent papers have addressed volatility predictability, some from the perspective of the usefulness of jumps in … forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010334248
We develop metrics based on Shapley values for interpreting time-series forecasting models, including "black-box" models from machine learning. Our metrics are model agnostic, so that they are applicable to any model (linear or nonlinear, parametric or nonparametric). Two of the metrics,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278179
This paper addresses the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the ?empty box? category, as discussed in Granger (1999). We present ex ante forecasting evidence based on an updated version of the absolute returns series examined by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) that suggests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276818
This paper provides a review which focuses on forecasting using statistical/econometric methods designed for dealing with large data sets.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284149
This paper surveys the techniques of wavelets analysis and the associated methods of denoising. The Discrete Wavelet Transform and its undecimated version, the Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform, are described. The methods of wavelets analysis can be used to show how the frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284181
This paper revisits a number of data-rich prediction methods, like factor models, Bayesian ridge regression and forecast combinations, which are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting, and compares these with a lesser known alternative method: partial least squares regression. Under the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284202