Contemporary observers viewed the recession that began in the summer of 1929 as nothing extraordinary. Recent analyses have shown that the subsequent large deflation was econometrically forecastable, implying that a driving force in the depression was the high expected real interest rates faced...

This paper investigates sentiment in the US economy from 1920 to 1934 using digitized articles from the Wall St Journal. We derive a monthly sentiment index and use a ten variable vector error correction model to identify sentiment shocks that are orthogonal to fundamentals. We show the timing...

This paper develops a method that uses a likelihood approach to directly compare two or more non-nested dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is shown how DSGE models can be compared across the whole sample and how this measure can be decomposed across individual observations...

We obtain time series estimates of the long run growth rates of 17 OECD countries, and test the hypothesis that these are the same across countries. We find that we cannot reject this hypothesis for the first and last three decades of the 20th century. We conclude that: (i) there are few, if...

Historically, episodes of rapid growth are accompanied by significant structural change. In this paper we therefore aim to quantify the extent to which factor accumulation induces structural change and productivity growth in industrializing economies. To fix ideas we present an extension of...

We study the dynamics of the cross-section distribution of patents per capita for the 48 continental U.S. states from 1930 to 2000 using a discrete-state Markov chain. We test for and find evidence in favor of the (knowledge) convergence hypothesis as we find that the distribution of patents is...

We compare male and female upward labor income mobility in Germany and the United States using the GSOEP-PSID Cross-National Equivalent File. Our main interest is to test whether a glass ceiling exists for women. Conventional thinking about the glass ceiling highlights the belief that the...

This paper estimates and compares the full participation and the segmented markets monetary frameworks. In both models, the real sector and monetary policy determine exogenously the joint process for the aggregate endowment and the short-term nominal interest rate, while the money growth rate...

This paper develops a heterogeneous agents segmented markets model with endogenous production and a monetary authority that follows a Taylor-type interest rate rule. The model is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques and is evaluated as a framework suitable for empirical monetary...

This paper contains all of the statistical results underlying our paper The Origin and Diffusion of Shocks to Regional Interest Rates in the United States, 1880-2002. It also contains a table of the underlying data, and a discussion of how the data was constructed.