Showing 1 - 10 of 939
We employ a battery of model evaluation tests for a broad-set of GARCH-MIDAS models and account for data snooping bias. We document that inferences based on standard tests for GM variance components can be misleading. Our data mining free results show that the gains of macro-variables in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654473
The low-risk anomaly challenges traditional financial theory by stating that less volatile stocks generate higher risk-adjusted returns. This paper explores how various portfolio construction choices influence the performance of low-risk portfolios. We show that methodological decisions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015327136
The low-risk anomaly challenges traditional financial theory by stating that less volatile stocks generate higher risk-adjusted returns. This paper explores how various portfolio construction choices influence the performance of low-risk portfolios. We show that methodological decisions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015395882
In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551600
In this paper we assess whether the relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy has been stable over time. Using quarterly US data from 1953Q1 to 2018Q2, we estimate Bayesian VAR models which allow for drifting parameters and/or stochastic volatility and conduct formal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654449
In this paper, we analyse the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigate the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654467
In this paper we analyze how skewness and heavy tails a ect the estimated relationship between the real economy and the corporate bond-yield spread, a popular predictor of real activity. We use quarterly US data to estimate Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility and various...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654479
In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t distribution for the innovations. Allowing the skewness parameter to vary over time, our specification permits flexible modelling of innovations in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015130168
The way in which climate policy and climate risks are currently accounted for in financial and real investment decisions is inadequate. The paper demonstrates weaknesses in methods presently used and proposes an alternative that aims to bridge the duration gap between climate policy modeling and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353589
Change point models using hierarchical priors share in the information of each regime when estimating the parameter values of a regime. Because of this sharing, hierarchical priors have been very successful when estimating the parameter values of short-lived regimes and predicting the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030268