Most macroeconomic data are uncertain - they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper...

This paper proposes a new panel model of cross-sectional dependence. The model has a number of potential structural interpretations that relate to economic phenomena such as herding in financial markets. On an econometric level it provides a flexible approach to the modelling of interactions...

The paper provides a proof of consistency of the ridge estimator for regressions where the number of regressors tends to infinity. Such result is obtained without assuming a factor structure. A Monte Carlo study suggests that shrinkage autoregressive models can lead to very substantial...

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...

Recent advances in testing for the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) focus on the time series properties of real exchange rates in panel frameworks. One weakness of such tests, however, is that they fail to inform the researcher as to which cross-section units are stationary. As a...

This paper introduces a new model of structural breaks which assumes that structural breaks are driven by large economic shocks. The model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic and it can be used to investigate the impact of large economic shocks on the stability of...

The investigation of the presence of structural change in economic and financial series is a major preoccupation in econometrics. A number of tests have been developed and used to explore the stationarity properties of various processes. Most of the focus has rested on the first two moments of a...

The persistence properties of economic time series has been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. This paper suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history. In particular we suggest that examining the...

Most work in the area of nonlinear econometric modelling is based on a single equation and assumes exogeneity of the explanatory variables. Recently, work by Caner and Hansen (2003) and Psaradakis, Sola, and Spagnolo (2004) has considered the possibility of estimating nonlinear models by methods...

This paper presents an invariance principle for highly nonstationary long memory processes, defined as processes with long memory parameter lying in (1, 1.5). This principle provides the tools for showing asymptotic validity of the bootstrap in the context of such processes.