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are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263217
view of inflation. Second, we discuss how the recent inflationary episode has contributed to redistributing real resources …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015054274
This paper applies the recently developed maximum-likelihood-panel cointegration method of Larsson and Lyhagen (2007 … error terms. The findings using this new method are contrasted to those from the Pedroni (1995) cointegration tests and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321519
This paper presents a model yielding testable implications concerning the long-run co-movements of real exchange rates, relative productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with higher productivity, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321757
A puzzle in international macroeconomics is that observed real exchange rates are highly volatile. Standard international real business cycle (IRBC) models cannot reproduce this fact. We show that total factor productivity processes for the United States and the rest of the world are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292354
inflation in the cointegrated models. Finally, impulse response functions in the first difference specification die out within a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321604
The extent to which the stock market provides a hedge to investors against inflation is examined for African stock … markets. By employing parametric and nonparametric cointegration procedures, we show that the point estimates of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273656
This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the … inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500195
chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280760
processes, cointegration is a necessary condition both for consistent estimation of the parameters of the model and … compatibility between the model and the data. Tests find little support for cointegration and, together with an out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321545