In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures traded at the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER). To...

In this research paper ARCH-type models and option implied volatilities (IV) are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a stock index futures portfolio for several time horizons. The relevance of the asymmetries in the estimated volatility estimation is considered. The empirical...

I study the diffusion process of permanent disinflationary shocks in the Mexican economy using disaggregated price data for 283 goods across 46 cities in the period 1995-2012. I first show that the distribution of shocks shows considerable heterogeneity, with more than 80% of all cases having...

We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the 'three pillars macroeconomic policy framework': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explict target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such...

Monetary policy in India has moved towards an increasingly flexible exchange rate regime without any explicit framework for an alternative nominal anchor. The failure of monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations of agents, coupled with negative supply shocks has kept inflation above...

This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that were available at the moment predictions are to be made. The study analyzes currency crises in eight Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, distinguishing an...