We construct inflation pressure indicators based on the long-run relationship that exists between monetary aggregates and prices, once it is adequately adjusted to account for the scale of transactions, as well as the opportunity cost of holding money. To that end, an extensive long-run...

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the demand for the monetary aggregate M1 in Mexico. Using cointegration techniques, we identify both a stable long-run relationship between M1 and its determinants, and a statistically sound single-equation error-correction model. Results are used...

This paper examines whether the low interest rate environment that has prevailed since the Great Recession has compelled banks to reach for yield. It is important to recognize that banks can take on a variety of risks that offer higher yields today but incur different forms of future losses....

Forecasts of inflation in the United States since the mid eighties have had smaller errors than in the past, but those conditional on commonly used variables cannot consistently beat the ones from univariate models. This paper shows through simple modifications to the classical monetary model...

This paper applies a novel approach to study the impact of different shocks on the price level. It uses a classical dichotomy model with monetary policy regime shifts at known dates. First, there was a regime dominated by money, afterwards a regime driven by the exchange rate and a third one...

This document proposes a general macroeconomic framework to analyze the behavior of inflation. This approach has two characteristics. The first is the distinction of monetary regimes based on the number of shocks that have a permanent effect on the price level. When all shocks have a permanent...

We analyze the impact of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy on the distribution of the frequency of price change and its consequences for the slope of the Phillips curve for the United States. By combining product-level microdata on the frequency of price change with data on...

We document empirical regularities of disaggregated inflation and consumption and study whether multisectoral New Keynesian models can explain them. We focus on higher moments of the inflation and consumption growth distributions as well as on the contemporaneous comovement of these two...

The remarkable stability of low domestic inflation in many countries requires explanation. In this paper, a number of competing hypotheses are evaluated on a stand-alone basis, and all are found to be inadequate. This includes the view that this outcome has been solely the result of more...

This paper studies the effects of three financial shocks in the economy: a net-worth shock, an uncertainty or risk shock, and a credit-spread shock. We argue that only the latter can push the nominal interest rate against its zero lower bound. Further, a recessionary shock to the net worth or...