Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die Wachstumseffekte öffentlicher Investitionen in die sozial-ökologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Die Analyse zeigt, dass eine drastische Ausweitung der öffentlichen Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen in Deutschland einen Wirtschaftsboom...

This study analyzes the short-run effects on the German economy of the fossil energy crisis in 2022 and discusses some implications for the design of a resilient, renewable energy system. The study shows that the energy crisis led to a short-run output loss comparable to the output losses...

We embed a news shock, a noisy indicator of the future state, in a two-state Markovswitching growth model. Our framework, combined with parameter learning, features rich history-dependent uncertainty dynamics. We show that bad news that arrives during a prolonged economic boom can trigger a...

This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004-2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in which...

We build and estimate a two-sector (goods and services) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: materials (input) inventories facilitate the production of finished goods, while finished goods (output) inventories yield utility services. The model is estimated...

In this paper we analyze the synchronization between the business cycles of US and Mexican regions. Regional economic activity in Mexico is measured using regional coincident indexes recently developed at Banco de México, while US aggregate economic activity is measured with the national...

This paper uses the wavelet methodology to analyze the dynamics of inflation in Mexico at different frequencies over time. First, we analyze the monthly behavior of the headline, core, and noncore inflation from January 2007 to December 2018. Subsequently, the decomposition shows that the shocks...

This paper studies the dynamics of Mexican inflation by using a wavelet multiresolution analysis on 16 indexes of the Mexican Consumer Price Index. This enables us to estimate the long-term trend, seasonality, and local shocks of the inflation series, even when the series are non-stationary. The...

The authors derive an estimate of the Federal Reserve's assessment of the natural rate of unemployment in real time from the Greenbook forecast of inflation. The estimated natural rate starts to rise noticeably in the second half of the mid-1970s. It stays relatively high in the 1980s, and then...

In macroeconomic models, the level of price dispersion - which is typically approximated through its relationship with inflation - is a central determinant of welfare, the cost of business cycles, the optimal rate of inflation, and the tradeoff between inflation and output stability. While the...