for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money …, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment … forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non …

We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF … satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate; (ii) the best forecasting model is a simple univariate model where the future …