This paper analyzes the empirical performance of two alternative ways in which multi-factor models with time-varying risk exposures and premia may be estimated. The first method echoes the seminal two-pass approach advocated by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The second approach extends previous work...

This paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader...

Research has documented that the first report an investment bank affiliated analyst issues on a newly listed stock tends to be favorable. Our analysis of 16,824 relationships between analyst teams and established listed companies during 1995-2003 indicates that analyst coverage decisions of...

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics and combining forecasts from different models helps improve...

This paper studies the effects of conflict onset on asset markets applying the event study methodology. We consider a sample of 112 conflicts during the period 1974-2004 and find that a sizeable fraction of them had a significant impact on stock market indices and on major commodity prices....

The 2007-2008 financial crises has made it painfully obvious that markets may quickly turn illiquid. Moreover, recent experience has taught us that distress and lack of active trading can jump "around" between seemingly unconnected parts of the financial system contributing to transforming...

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...

This paper finds strong evidence of time-variations in the joint distribution of returns on a stock market portfolio and portfolios tracking size- and value effects. Mean returns, volatilities and correlations between these equity portfolios are found to be driven by underlying regimes that...

We estimate a number of multivariate regime switching VAR models on a long monthly data set for eight variables that include excess stock and bond returns, the real T-bill yield, predictors used in the finance literature (default spread and the dividend yield), and three macroeconomic variables...

We address one interesting case — the predictability of excess US asset returns from macroeconomic factors within a flexible regime switching VAR framework — in which the presence of regimes may lead to superior forecasting performance from forecast combinations. After having documented that...