The literature has not reached a consensus yet regarding the existence of sovereign creditor moral hazard. Exploiting an exceptional historical example, this paper proposes an original method to address this issue. As the corona which are observable only during a total eclipse of the sun,...

Exploiting cross-sectional and time-series variations in European regulations during the July 2008 – June 2009 period, we show that: 1) Prohibition on covered short selling raises bid-ask spread and reduces trading volume, 2) Prohibition on naked short selling raises both volatility and...

Bitcoin is a major virtual currency. Using weekly data over the 2010-2013 period, we analyze a Bitcoin investment from the standpoint of a U.S. investor with a diversified portfolio including both traditional assets (worldwide stocks, bonds, hard currencies) and alternative investments...

Economists have been blamed for their inability to forecast and address crises. This paper attributes this inability to intertwined factors: the lack of a coherent definition of crises, the reference class problem, the lack of imagination regarding the nature of future crises, and sample...

Prices of repudiated bonds are insightful but scarcely observed. Based on an original daily database, this paper compares the price evolution from January 6, 1916 to August 31, 1919 of a cross-listed (Paris and London) Tsarist bond repudiated by the Soviets on February 8, 1918. After its...

The market portfolio efficiency remains controversial. This paper develops a new test of portfolio mean-variance efficiency relying on the realistic assumption that all assets are risky. The test is based on the vertical distance of a portfolio from the efficient frontier. Monte Carlo...

Addressing crises raises a sharp reference-class problem in economics. Namely, economic theory lacks an inclusive and consistent classification of crises. This problem stems from the fact that economists tend to adapt their views on crises to recent episodes, and omit averted and potential...

Art is often used as an investment vehicle. Given the importance of market efficiency in finance, we use a large auction-based index to test whether the art market is weakly efficient. Evidence reveals that returns on artworks exhibit high positive auto-correlation. We attribute this result to...

Intervening in the FX market implies a complex decision process for central banks. Monetary authorities have to decide whether to intervene or not, and if so, when and how. Since the successive steps of this procedure are likely to be highly interdependent, we adopt a nested logit approach to...

This paper investigates the informational efficiency of bond markets when investments are constrained by financial repression. To assess informational efficiency, this paper performs weak-form efficiency tests on the most liquid bond traded in Italy during the war. Surprisingly, the bond market...