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Bayesian predictive distributions of oil returns using mixed data sampling volatility models

Virbickaite, Audrone; Nguyen, Hoang; Minh-Ngoc Tran - 2023

such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH), Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), and … inclusion of exogenous variables is beneficial for GARCH-type models while offering only a marginal improvement for GAS and SV …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252427

How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?

Ahmadi, Maryam; Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri; Manera, Matteo - 2015

This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on volatility of selected agricultural and metal commodities. To achieve this goal, we decompose an oil price shock to its underlying components, including macroeconomics and oil specific shocks. The applied methodology is the structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438674

Integrated ARCH, FIGARCH and AR models : origins of long memory

Giraitis, Liudas; Surgailis, Donatas; Škarnulis, Andrius - 2015

Although the properties of the ARCH(∞) model are well investigated, the existence of long memory FIGARCH and IARCH solution was not established in the literature. These two popular ARCH type models which are widely used in applied literature, were causing theoretical controversy because of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405303

STAR-GARCH models for stock market interactions in the Pacific Basin region, Japan and US

Busetti, Giorgio; Manera, Matteo - 2003

, Hong Kong and Taiwan), Japan and US. The originality of the paper is the use of STAR-GARCH models, instead of standard … correlation-cointegration techniques. For each country in the Pacific Basin region, we find statistically adequate STAR-GARCH …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011591386

Long memory, realized volatility and HAR models

Baillie, Richard; Calonaci, Fabio; Cho, Dooyeon; Rho, … - 2019

The presence of long memory in Realized Volatility (RV) is a widespread stylized fact. The origins of long memory in RV have been attributed to jumps, structural breaks, non-linearities, or pure long memory. An important development has been the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model and its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964976

Financial Implications of the EU Emission Trading System : an analysis of wavelet coherence and volatility spillovers

De Ponti, Pietro; Romagnoli, Matteo - 2022

We study the European Union's Emission Trading System (EU ETS) from a financial perspective. Using ARMA-eGARCH filtered volatilities, we first discuss the evolution of the volatility of EU ETS allowances' returns from 2008 to 2021. Second, we study the degree of co-movement and interdependence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361266

Forecasting the volatility of energy transition metals

Bastianin, Andrea; Li, Xiao; Shamsudin, Luqman - 2025

, including Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models, to determine …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015190309

Evaluating density forecasts with an application to stock market returns

Raaij, Gabriela de; Raunig, Burkhard - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001650402

Forecasting volatility in European stock markets with non-linear GARCH models

Forte, Gianfranco; Manera, Matteo - 2002

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of three popular variants of the non-linear GARCH models, namely VS-GARCH …, GJR-GARCH and Q-GARCH, with the symmetric GARCH(1,1) model as a benchmark. The application involves ten European stock … price indexes. Forecasts produced by each non-linear GARCH model and each index are evaluated using a common set of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011598042

European gasoline markets : price transmission asymmetries in mean and variance

Torrado, María; Escribano, Álvaro - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012158754