forecasting performance of econometric models incorporating asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline. In this … point forecasting, while it can be exploited to produce more accurate sign and probability forecasts. Finally, we highlight … that the forecasting performance of the estimated models is time-varying. …

across countries by using a two-step approach that selects the most accurate linear or non-linear forecasting method for each … outperform ARIMA linear models for longer forecasting horizons. This holds true for countries with both soft and brisk changes of … expectations. However, when forecasting one step ahead, the performance between the two methods is similar. …