This paper proposes a methodology for constructing a Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI) based on factor analysis and the approaches of Brave and Butters (2011) and Aramonte et al. (2013). A selected set of variables is used and their information content aggregated into a single index that...

When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...

Our paper addresses the issue on the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies in small open economies for different exchange rate regimes. The need for macroprudential policy arises from exacerbated macroeconomic fluctuations due to frictions in the financial system as in...

In this paper, we analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate...

Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on the state financial markets are in when they occur....

This paper presents the findings derived from a comprehensive survey conducted by the Central Bank of Malta, in collaboration with the National Statistics Office, with the aim of analysing payment habits in Malta. The research explores individuals' perspectives on various aspects, including...

The ongoing initiatives to offer central bank money to consumers in the form of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) have triggered discussions on its optimal design. So far, the perspective of potential users has not been considered widely. To strengthen this perspective, we survey 2006...

We investigate how the presence of physical bank branches moderates financial technology diffusion. Our identification strategy uses services suspensions caused by criminal groups that perform hit-and-run raids exploding branch facilities and rendering them inoperable for months. We show that...