Applications of zero-inflated count data models have proliferated in empirical economic research. There is a downside to this development, as zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated Negative Binomial Maximum Likelihood estimators are not robust to misspecification. In contrast, simple Poisson...

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially...