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Multivariate random sums appear in many scientific fields, most notably in actuarial science, where they model both the number of claims and their sizes. Unfortunately, they pose severe inferential problems. For example, their density function is analytically intractable, in the general case,...
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In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t distribution for the innovations. Allowing the skewness parameter to vary over time, our specification permits flexible modelling of innovations in terms of...
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In this paper I have used copula functions to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio … structure? (iii) is it worth modelling these nonnormalities in risk- management applications? (iv) do complicated models perform …-of-sample. -- Copula functions ; Forecasting ; Value-At-Risk …
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There is considerable literature on matrix-variate gamma distributions, also known as Wishart distributions, which are driven by a shape parameter with values in the (Gindikin) set {i/2, i = 1, . . . , k−1}∪((k−1)/2, ∞). We provide an extension of this class to the case where the shape...
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We confirm that standard time-series models for US output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock market returns feature non-Gaussian error structure. We build a 4-variable VAR model where the orthogonolised shocks have a Student t-distribution with a time-varying variance. We find that in...
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