Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...

This paper provides a review of the literature on competitiveness and leakage concerns associated with differentiated climate abatement commitments among countries. The literature reviewed is not exhausted, but it is sufficient to provide a balanced view of both academics and policy circles....

This document summarizes the thrust of my monograph book Disasters and the Networked Economy (2003, NY: Routledge. 228 pp. ISBN: 978-0-415-66629-9). It is no substitution for the book, but it attempts to make salient the main concepts, explanations and conclusions of it. It does so by first...

Several authors have shown that there exists a significant relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future changes in the rate of inflation. More recently, this relationship has been strengthened through the introduction of nonlinearities and regime shifts. This paper...

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...

The welfare dimension of the recreational services provided by global coastal ecosystems is examined through a meta-analytical regression-based valuation approach. First, we construct a global, state-of-the-art database of stated and revealed preference estimates on coastal recreation, which...

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data...

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several...

According to the Rockets and Feathers hypothesis (RFH), the transmission mechanism of positive and negative changes in the price of crude oil to the price of gasoline is asymmetric. Although there have been many contributions documenting that downstream prices are more reactive to increases than...