Showing 1 - 10 of 3,359
have been analyzed: (i) are there nonnormalities in the marginals? (ii) are there nonnormalities in the dependence … the univariate, as well as at the multivariate level. When considering the dependence structure of the data I have found … exercise has shown that models based on Normal marginals and/or with symmetric dependence structure fail to deliver accurate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008810287
We confirm that standard time-series models for US output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock market returns feature non-Gaussian error structure. We build a 4-variable VAR model where the orthogonolised shocks have a Student t-distribution with a time-varying variance. We find that in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759
In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t distribution for the innovations. Allowing the skewness parameter to vary over time, our specification permits flexible modelling of innovations in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084442
This paper introduces a VAR with stochastic volatility in mean where the residuals of the volatility equations and the observation equations are allowed to be correlated. This implies that exogeneity of shocks to volatility is not assumed apriori and structural shocks can be identified ex-post...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812167
In this note we present an updated algorithm to estimate the VAR with stochastic volatility proposed in Mumtaz (2018). The model is re-written so that some of the Metropolis Hastings steps are avoided.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243290
This paper proposes a novel and flexible framework to estimate autoregressive models with time-varying parameters. Our setup nests various adaptive algorithms that are commonly used in the macroeconometric literature, such as learning-expectations and forgetting-factor algorithms. These are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382183
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011581633
This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252427
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010348322
High dimensional composite index makes experts' preferences in setting weights a hard task. In the literature, one of the approaches to derive weights from a data set is Principal Component or Factor Analysis that, although conceptually different, they are similar in results when FA is based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011999119