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This paper introduces a VAR with stochastic volatility in mean where the residuals of the volatility equations and the … observation equations are allowed to be correlated. This implies that exogeneity of shocks to volatility is not assumed apriori …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812167
In this note we present an updated algorithm to estimate the VAR with stochastic volatility proposed in Mumtaz (2018 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243290
This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty that can be attributed to specific structural shocks. This enables researchers to investigate the "origin" of a change in overall macroeconomic uncertainty. To demonstrate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895010
volatility and Student-t disturbances outperforms restricted alternatives that feature either attributes. The VAR model with … feature non-Gaussian error structure. We build a 4-variable VAR model where the orthogonolised shocks have a Student t …-distribution with a time-varying variance. We find that in terms of in-sample fit, the VAR model that features both stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759
In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084442
the state financial markets are in when they occur. Using monthly US data, we estimate a nonlinear VAR where economic … uncertainty is proxied by the (unobserved) volatility of the structural shocks, and a regime change occurs whenever credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472852
increased globalisation and trade openness may be the driving force behind the increased cross-country correlation in volatility. …We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
deviations. VAR based empirical results support the model implications that contractionary shocks increase volatility. The … Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy … rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation volatility to rise around 10% above their steady-state standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389786
estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490330
time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252440