We use a dynamic factor model to consider if real wage growth in the US, UK and Germany at different percentiles of the distribution can be explained by factors that are common across countries or specific to each country. Our results suggest that common factors explain a large proportion of the...

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

This paper identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as VAR innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses...

This paper uses a FAVAR model with external instruments to show that the policy uncertainty shocks are recessionary and are associated with an increase in the exit of firms and a decrease in entry and in the stock price with total factor productivity rising in the medium run. To explain this...

This paper investigates the impact of heterogeneous beliefs of professional investors on the currency options market. Using a unique data set with detailed information on the foreign-exchange forecasts of about 50 market participants over more than ten years, we construct an empirical proxy for...

The UK has experienced a dramatic increase in earnings and income inequality over the past four decades. We use detailed micro level information to construct historical measures of inequality from 1968 to 2008. We study whether monetary policy shocks played a significant role in explaining this...

The UK has experienced a dramatic increase in earnings and income inequality over the past four decades. We use detailed micro level information to construct quarterly historical measures of inequality from 1969 to 2012. We investigate whether monetary policy shocks played a role in explaining...

Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in...

Using a randomized control trial of approximately 1,000 firm pairs in New Zealand that have a customer-supplier relationship, we provide an information treatment to analyze both the direct effects on expectations and actions of firms receiving this information and the spillover effects on...

What type of fiscal policy is most effective during a financial crisis? I study the macroeconomic effects of the US fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting not only for standard tools such as government purchases and transfers but also for financial sector interventions such as...