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Forecasting foreign exchange volatility : is implied volatility the best we can do?

Neely, Christopher J. (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource], rev

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001974118

Futures price volatility in commodities markets : the role of short term vs long term speculation

Manera, Matteo; Nicolini, Marcella; Vignati, Ilaria - 2013

This paper evaluates how different types of speculation affect the volatility of commodities' futures prices. We adopt …-2010 analyzed at weekly frequency. Using GARCH models we find that speculation significantly affects volatility of returns: short … term speculation has a positive and significant impact on volatility, while long term speculation generally has a negative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756298

Returns in commodities futures markets and financial speculation : a multivariate GARCH approach

Manera, Matteo; Nicolini, Marcella; Vignati, Ilaria - 2012

This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535531

The role of jumps in volatility spillovers in foreign exchange markets: meteor shower and heat waves revisited

Lahaye, Jérôme; Neely, Christopher J. - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010423538

Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets

Bardgett, Chris; Gourier, Elise; Leippold, Markus - 2016

This paper studies the information content of the S&P 500 and VIX markets on the volatility of the S&P 500 returns. We … risk-neutral distributions as well as the term structure of volatility smiles and of variance risk premia. We find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410916

Is small beautiful? : size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates in tourism

Chang, Chia-Lin; Hsu, Hui-kuang; McAleer, Michael - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009701646

Understanding dynamic conditional correlations between commodities futures markets

Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri; Manera, Matteo; Nicolini, Marcella - 2016

We estimate dynamic conditional correlations between 10 commodities futures returns in energy, metals and agriculture markets over the period 1998-2014 with a DCC-GARCH model. We look at the factors influencing those correlations, adopting a pooled mean group (PMG) estimator. Macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451631

Jumps in option prices and their determinants : real-time evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 option market

Kapetanios, George; Neumann, Michael; Skiadopoulos, George - 2014

We study the real-time characteristics and drivers of jumps in option prices. To this end, we employ high frequency data from the 24-hour E-mini S&P 500 options market. We find that option prices do not jump simultaneously across strikes and maturities and are uncorrelated with jumps in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472845

Pricing of idiosyncratic equity and variance risks

Gourier, Elise - 2016

This paper decomposes the risk premia of individual stocks into contributions from systematic and idiosyncratic risks. I introduce an affine jump-diffusion model, which accounts for both the factor structure of asset returns and that of the variance of idiosyncratic returns. The estimation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410917

The contribution of frictions to expected returns

Hirakiy, Kazuhiro; Skiadopoulos, George - 2018

We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932555