In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To investigate the forecasting performance of the models, two naive benchmark models (one is a variant of a random walk and the other is an autoregressive model) are first built based on...

What are the main narratives among the public regarding the future course of the Colombian economy, and how do they compare to those of the Central Bank of Colombia? Macroeconomic forecasts collected through surveys mainly assess observable variables; therefore, they offer little understanding...

This study examines whether payment system data can be useful for tracking economic activity in Azerbaijan. We utilise the transactional payment system data at the sectoral level and employ a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques to nowcast quarterover-quarter and...