This report constitutes the first deliverable of the project ENGIME Economic Growth and Innovation in Multicultural Environments, financed by the European Commission FP5 Key Action: Improving socio-economic knowledge base. Contract HPSE-CT2001-50007

For two periods an expert E announces his forecast of the state to a decision-maker D who chooses action. They disagree about the precision of the probability assessments. At the end of period 1 the state is observed. In the last period E makes announcements more extreme than his forecasts....