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Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018
-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
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Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks
McNelis, Paul; McAdam, Peter - 2004
This paper applies linear and neural network-based “thick” models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639406
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Developing a euro area accounting matrix
Jellema, Tjeerd; Keuning, Steven; McAdam, Peter; Mink, … - 2004
An important part of external or policy shocks is transmitted throughout the economy via various channels of transactions. To analyse such channels and to predict the impact of shocks, it is expedient to know who recently exchanged what with whom and for what purpose. The most appropriate format...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639410
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Optimal monetary policy rules for the euro area
Dieppe, Alistair; Küster, Keith; McAdam, Peter - 2004
-based policies with the optimal forecast horizon for inflation ranging between two and three years. Benchmarking against fully optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639414
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Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US
Klump, Rainer; McAdam, Peter; Willman, Alpo - 2004
Using a normalized CES function with factor-augmenting technical progress, we estimate a supply-side system of the US economy from 1953 to 1998. Avoiding potential estimation biases that have occurred in earlier studies and putting a high emphasis on the consistency of the data set, required by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639421
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In dubio pro CES
León-Ledesma, Miguel A.; McAdam, Peter; Willman, Alpo - 2010
Capital-labor substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of growth and income distribution models. In the context of a Monte Carlo exercise embodying balanced and near balanced growth, we demonstrate that the estimation of the substitution elasticity can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640366
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Shocking stuff
Cantore, Cristiano; León-Ledesma, Miguel A.; McAdam, Peter - 2010
The reaction of hours worked to technology shocks represents a key controversy between RBC and New Keynesian explanations of the business cycle. It sparked a large empirical literature with contrasting results. We demonstrate that, with a more general and data coherent supply and production...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640511
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theory and empirics
Klump, Rainer; McAdam, Peter; Willman, Alpo - 2011
normalization in recent advances in the theory of business cycles and of economic growth. Next, we discuss the benefits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640627
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Optimal monetary policy rules for the euro area : an analysis using the area wide model
Dieppe, Alistair (contributor); Küster, Keith (contributor) - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002125159
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Anticipation of future consumption: a monetary perspective
Faria, João Ricardo; McAdam, Peter - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765171