Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic - instead of the currently used static -...

Extending the data set used in Beyer (2009) from 2007 to 2017, we estimate I(1) and I(2) money demand models for euro area M3. We nd that the elasticities in the money demand and the real wealth relations identi ed previously in Beyer (2009) have remained remarkably stable throughout the...

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...

This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function (FRF) framework for euro area countries to test for the impact of changes in inflation on fiscal policy. We find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary balance after controlling for other relevant factors. Over...

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...