Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify implied probability distributions that might explain this...

This paper analyzes the market microstructure of the European Climate Exchange, the largest EU ETS trading venue. The ECX captures 2/3 of the screen traded market in EUA and more than 90% in CER. Trading volumes are active, with EUA volume doubling in 2009. Spreads range from €0.02 to €0.06...

We propose instrumental variable(IV) estimators for quantile marginal effects and the parameters upon which they depend in a semiparametric outcome model with endogenous discrete treatment variables. We prove identification, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also show...

A stationary stochastic process is defined to be locally independent if it eventually becomes independent of pastrealizations. I develop a simple nonparametric test for this condition. Size and power comparisons favor this statistic over the one proposed by Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (1987)...

A Bayesian semi-parametric estimation of the binary response model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is proposed. The performances of the parametric and semi-parametric models are presented. The mean squared errors, receiver operating characteristic curve, and the marginal effect are...

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric kernel estimators of the aforementioned...

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric kernel estimators of the aforementioned...

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), and by Andersen, Bollerslev and Meddahi (2004, 2005), who address the...

It is well known that it is important to control the bias in estimating conditional expectations in order to obtain asymptotic normality for quantities of interest (e.g. a finite dimensional parameter vector in semiparametric models or averages of marginal effects in the nonparametric case). For...