We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...

Im vorliegenden Diskussions-Papier werden die externen Luftverschmutzungskosten des motorisierten Individualverkehrs (MIV) für verschiedene Technologien, Fahrsituationen und alle Regionen in Deutschland berechnet. Dabei ist das Ziel der Untersuchung, die Notwendigkeit einer fahrtortsbezogenen...

Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic...

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals,...

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting the production function approachin terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

We estimate the effects of student employment on academic performance. Performance is measured by grades achieved one and a half years after entering university. We use the amount of financial aid students receive after application as a source of exogenous variation in the probability or being...

The macroeconomic development in West Germany in the aftermath of unification was characterized by a boom period in 1990/1991, a deep recession in 1992/1993 and a slow recovery since then. In East Germany, in contrast, unification induced a breakdown of production and employment followed by a...

This paper examines the role of alternative assumptions on savings and expectations for the fixwage traverse with strong forward biased technological change. After briefly outlining the model, some peculiarities of the adjustment path under the Hicksian Q-Assumption are investigated....

This study provides empirical evidence for the economic rationality of wage rigidities. Theoretically wage rigidities can result from contracts, implicit contracts, from efficiency wages and from insider-outsider behaviour. Based on a survey of 801 firms strong support has been found for...

This paper analyses the determinants of employment reactions of firms when environmental innovations have been carried out. It differentiates hereby between employment increases and decreases. The data stem from a telephone survey covering more than 1500 firms in five European countries that...