Showing 1 - 10 of 591
This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448601
Der Beitrag enthält eine Neuschätzung der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) für Westdeutschland 1980 bis 1998. Nach einer Darstellung des konzeptionellen Rahmens der NAIRU einschließlich verschiedener Varianten, welche beispielsweise exogenen Schocks und dem Hysterese-Phänomen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444884
In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011442943
The path of output prior to the financial and economic crisis turned out to be not sustainable and lower than previously estimated in some European crisis countries. Specifically, the output gaps have been underestimated (and inversely potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416360
The economic meltdown since 2008-9 has created disinflation, and even deflation in some countries in the Euro-area, in … disinflation and deflation push up the real interest rate, while growth and income declines, the leveraging problem becomes more … feedback loops, given the debt deflation, we demonstrate the possibility of unstable dynamics and downward spirals in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452796
In an influential recent paper, Beaudry and Portier (2006) propose a sequential approach for identifying technological news shocks. Thereby, the correlation coefficient between news shocks of a short-run identification scheme and technology shocks of a long-run identification scheme in the VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225546
Recent empirical literature delivered, based on different structural VAR approaches, controversial results concerning the role of anticipated technology-news-shocks in business cycle fluctuations. We deal with this controversy and investigate (i) the extent to thich two prominent structural VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225547
The study analyses the business cycles of the G7 countries in a structural vector autoregression(SVAR) framework comprising output, nominal interest rate and inflation. Common and country-specific supply, demand and nominal shocks of each G7 country are identified, and the corresponding shock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824053
the (incipient) deflation that China now faces. It could create a zero-interest liquidity trap in financial markets that … leaves the central bank helpless to combat future deflation arising out of actual currency appreciation, as with the earlier … experience of Japan. Exchange rate appreciation, or the threat of it, causes macroeconomic distress without having any …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003328095
This paper investigates empirically the interrelationships between the daily stock market returns of the Nikkei 225, DAX and Dow Jones Industrial index. Contrary to former work this paper uses the succession of the markets in time to form different econometric models. In this way it is possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441167