We show that the effects of overfitting and underfitting a vector autoregressive (VAR) model are strongly asymmetric for VAR summary statistics involving higher-order dynamics (such as impulse response functions, variance decompositions, or long-run forecasts) . Underfit models often...

Science is the result of a substantially social process. That is, science relies on many inter-personal processes, including: selection and communication of research findings, discussion of method, checking and judgement of others' research, development of norms of scientific behaviour,...

The attacks on the World Trade Centre in 2001 resulted in two different effects on the Western cosmology. At a first glance, a tragedy of this magnitude appears to have triggered a globalized fear associated with a decline of trust in the modern means of transport. Mobile industries such as...