In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in the national economy. For that, we employ astructural VAR models and estimate interdependencies among different economic variables. Initial data analysis of macroeconomic...

In this study, we estimate a risk-neutral implied probability distribution using American call (put) options on Brent oil futures. For this purpose, we apply three different methodologies: non-parametric approach (kernel density estimation), semi-parametric approach by Shimko (1997), Datta and...

Qarşısına inflyasiya hədəflənməsi (İH) rejiminə keçid məqsədi qoyan mərkəzi banklar həm də müvafiq qiymət indeksinin seçilməsi ilə bağlı qərar verməlidirlər. Bu qərar verilərkən bir sıra meyarlar nəzərə alınır, mövcud qiymət indeksləri arasında "fayda-itki"...

The CBAR plans to make a transition from the current peg regime where exchange rate acts as a “nominal anchor” to an inflation targeting (IT) regime. All leading central banks which adhere to an IT regime adopt a respective operational framework consistent with the announced monetary regime....

In this paper, we estimate a DSGE model for the national economy, which also draws on the unique economic characteristics of the country. The empirical estimation is based on quarterly data and taking into account the short length of the time series for the national economy Bayesian estimation...