This article interprets time series facts regarding the sources of business fluctuations in Japan and attempts to uncover possible characteristics of the effects of monetary policy over the last two decades. It argues that given the institutional features of the Bank of Japan's operating...

It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We extend these empirical findings by examining interest rate and stock market volatility as additional recession indicators. Both risk-return analysis and the theory of investment under uncertainty...

The international press has recently reported on the widely-held view in the financial markets that the movement of the Belgian industrial confidence indicator might precede the euro area business cycles. The initial purpose of this paper is to assess whether this market perception is more than...

In collaboration with the Economic and Financial section of the League of Nation in Geneva, International Labour Organisation built a programme focusing on the causes of economic fluctuations and the monetary policies necessary to counter these fluctuations. Indeed, the view form the Geneva was...

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint. The model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature. In particular, the...

We construct asset markets, that are similar to those studied by Smith, Suchanek and Willians (1988), in which bubbles and crashes tended to occur. The main difference between the markets studied here and those studied by Smith et al. are that in the markets studied here, the fundamental values...

We report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets. In a setting in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes are observed. The results suggest that the departures from fundamental...

Growth mechanisms can significantly affect short run properties of monetary models. An equilibrium model with human capital accumulation through a learning-by-doing mechanism possesses both sustained inflation rigidity and persistent real responses in the presence of unexpected monetary shocks....

To a greater extent than is often stressed in extant literature, preference assumptions affect responses to monetary shocks in representative agents models. Temporary money shocks can have persistent real effects in cash in advance models if the marginal utility of leaisure is a decreasing...