. Accordingly this paper has to two objectives: Firstly, it presents economic theory explaining business cycles to historians … Germany (2). Section 3 deals with business cycle theory. To start with, it highlights the long tradition of theories that have … developments in business cycle theory (3.3). Section 4 discusses the application of business cycle theory in historical research …

betrachtet. Es zeigt sich, daß eine Reihe von Indikatoren für eine kurzfristige Prognose geeignet sind, daß aber eine Prognose … forecast horizons or for the prediction of turning points …

the sample period (1974 to 1999). The short-run dynamics reveal that most of the trade effects of changes in economic … through trade volumes. It turns out that a trade-weighted index of industrial production abroad fits historical export …

,5% abschwaechen (2000: 3,1%), insbesondere wegen der geringeren Exportdynamik. Impulse erhaelt die deutsche Konjunktur dagegen von der …