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Do large recessions reduce output permanently?

Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009673738

Do large recessions reduce output permanently?

Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009682078

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model

Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2019

relatively mild recessions when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to clearly …. In a real-time exercise the model detects recessions timely. Combining the estimated factor and the recession … prediction of the timing of the Great Recession and its recovery one quarter in advance. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098161

Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter

Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2020

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233667