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Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings : forecasting education flows using unemployment data
Blasques, Francisco; Hoogerkamp, Meindert Heres; … - 2020
We propose a dynamic factor model which we use to analyze the relationship between education participation and national … unemployment, as well as to forecast the number of students across the many different types of education. By clustering the factor … loadings associated with the dynamic macroeconomic factor, we can measure to what extent the different types of education …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315409
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Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings : forecasting education flows using unemployment data
Blasques, Francisco; Hoogerkamp, Meindert Heres; … - In: International journal of forecasting 37 (2021) 4, pp. 1426-1441
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013274289
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Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models
Sandmann, Gleb; Koopman, Siem Jan - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000953379
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Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood
Sandmann, Gleb - In: Journal of econometrics 87 (1998) 2, pp. 271-301
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001246644
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Realized Wishart-GARCH : a score-driven multi-Asset volatility model
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Janus, Paweł; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2016
We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881
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Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks
Bos, Charles S.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2007
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
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Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters
Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P.; Wel, Michel van der - 2007
In this discussion paper we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson–Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson–Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373825
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The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model
Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
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Information theoretic optimality of observation driven time series models
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André - 2014
We investigate the information theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device to update parameters in observation driven time-varying parameter models. The results provide a new theoretical justification for the class of generalized autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340740
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Periodic seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH models for daily electricity spot prices
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Carnero, M. Angeles - 2005
Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346471