This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, as well as the euro area, using both final revised data and real-time data. We are particularly interested in the impact of adding asset prices to the standard Taylor rule specification. Since...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

Using variance decompositions in vector auto-regressions (VARs) we model a high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads to assess the transmission of credit risk to the non-financial corporate sector. Our findings suggest a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions...

We analyse the macroeconomic effects of exogenous contractions in bank lending to non-financial corporations in the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy and Spain using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with endogenous hyperparameter selection and identification via sign restrictions. We focus...

We assess the macroeconomic effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchases on the four largest euro area economies using simulation exercises that combine unconventional monetary policy shocks with a fixed policy rate for the duration of the purchase programme. We identify unconventional monetary...

This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears...

We study the cross-country dimension of financial cycles for six euro area countries using three different methodologies: principal component analysis, synchronicity and similarity measures and wavelet analysis. We find that equity prices and interest rates display synchronization across...

We analyse the macroeconomic effects of exogenous contractions in bank lending to non-financial corporations in the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy and Spain using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with endogenous hyperparameter selection and identification via sign restrictions. We focus...