assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared … by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation to model the relationship between … inflation and its uncertainty using monthly data for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden over a period ranging from 1962 to 2004 ….For all three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

expectations develop adaptively. The model's solution attributes an impact on inflation not to actual money growth but to its core …-King, wavelets) as empirical measures of core money. The estimation results uniformly indicate that inflation and core money growth … growth below eight years are found to be insignificant for inflation. …

Professional Forecasters as proxy for expected inflation. We obtain significant and plausible estimates for the structural … inflation enters the price equation significantly, even when controlling for its ability to predict expectations. This suggests … a role for lagged inflation beyond that of capturing non-rationalities in expectations. When estimating a Phillips curve …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …