The accuracy of turning point predictions with leading indicators, like the Ifo Business Climate, depends in particular on the length and the stability of their leads against a reference cycle. Since there is no leading indicator with a one-to-one relationship to the reference cycle, it is...

Emerging countries in many cases are more crisis-prone than highly developed industrialized countries. This is in many cases due to a weak or volatile financial sector. The best policy to strengthen crisis resistance is the building up of a sound financial position. A sound financial position of...