Two Bayesian sampling schemes are outlined to estimate a K-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. Data augmentation for the multinomial logit model of the transition probabilities is alternatively based on a random utility and a difference in random utility...

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts that use activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips-curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian model averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors that includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data,...

The paper shows some new features implemented in SoePL-2012 DSGE model, namely explicitly modeled unobserved labour supply and observed unemployment rate. Our approach to labour market in the New Keynesian DSGE model follows papers of Galí et al. (2011); Galí (2011b), see also Christiano et...

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model...

This paper attempts to uncover the empirical relationship between the price-setting/consumer behavior and the sources of persistence in inflation and output. First, a small-scale New-Keynesian model (NKM) is examined using the method of moment and maximum likelihood estimators with US data from...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

We consider an alternative modelling approach to the mainstream DSGE paradigm, namely a Dynamic Stochastic General Disequilibrium (DSGD) baseline model of continuous and gradual adjustment processes on interacting real and financial markets. Heterogeneous capital gain expectations (chartists and...

The paper investigates the emergence of complex market expectations (opinion dynamics) around nominal exchange rate adjustments using a macro-financial model of a small open economy featuring heterogeneous expectation formation (chartists and fundamentalists) and gradual adjustment processes in...

The implementation of economic reforms under new economic policies in India was associated with a paradigmatic shift in monetary and fiscal policy. While monetary policies were solely aimed at "price stability" in the neoliberal regime, fiscal policies were characterized by the objective of...