The paper investigates by means of cointegration analysis whether the recently observed low levels of private saving and the current account balance in the United States are worrisome in the sense that they cannot be sufficiently explained by determinants which performed well in the past. Stock...

Is the US stock market overvalued? I use Shiller's CAPE to predict the return of investing in the S&P500 index. Siegel argues that the recent fall in the share of earnings that are paid out as dividends has biased downwards predictions from the CAPE. I offer a solution to the problem of reduced...