Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of...

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Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of...

This paper shows that the impact of changes in budgetary variables on major macroeconomic variables varies in sign and magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis in France. We find that these nonlinearities are both frequent (as they exist on all behaviors analyzed: real GDP, private...

Bouthevillain and Quinet discuss the adjustment for the effects of fluctuations in the inflation rate. The paper points out the problems that arise in the measurement of these effects, especially because the impact of price changes may considerably differ according to whether they are expected...

Bouthevillain and Hervé examine the policy problems posed by the expansion of health expenditure in France and in other developed countries. They provide a concise overview of the main features of the different health-care systems and consider some aspects of insurance theory that apply to...

Carine Bouthevillain, Laurent Paul and Jeanne Pavot observe that government debt in major developed countries has reached historically high levels for peacetime. They argue that in many countries, especially in Europe, fiscal adjustment must come from the control of public spending. The first...

This paper shows that the impact of changes in budgetary variables on real GDP, investment, consumption and employment varies in sign and magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis. To this end, a regime-switching process is embedded in standard macroeconomic equations in order to take into...