We examine the prevalence of data, specification, and parameter uncertainty in the formation of simple rules which mimic monetary policy-making decisions. Our approach is to build real-time datasets, simulate a real-time policy-setting environment, and provide a set of prescriptions and...

We show that using data which are properly available in real time when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news leads to different empirical findings than when data availability and timing issues are ignored. We do this by focusing on a particular example, namely Chen, Roll and...

We show that using data which are properly available in real time when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news leads to different empirical findings than when data availability and timing issues are ignored. We do this by focusing on a particular example, namely Chen, Roll and...

We consider three sets of phenomena that feature prominently and separately in the financial economics literature: conditional mean dependence (or lack thereof) in asset returns, dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return signs with implications for market timing, and dependence (and...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has emerged as the standard tool for measuring and reporting financial market risk. Currently, more than eighty commercial vendors offer enterprise or trading risk management systems which report VaR-like measures. Risk managers are therefore often left with the daunting task...

The variation in managerial compensation across countries and industries for firms of similar size is staggering. We analyze this phenomenon in a continuous time model of the firm, where the economic environment evolves stochastically over time and where changes to the firm operations are...

Policy makers and market participants often consider the forward-looking information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future developments in foreign exchange rates. Option implied volatilities can be used as forecasts of realized volatility and interval and density...

We attempt to answer the following questions: What are the revaluation effects and the impact on performance, volatility, and return correlation from stock market liberalization in emerging markets? These questions have been studied extensively at the market-level but not at the firm level. Our...

Which loss function should be used when estimating and evaluating option valuation models? Many different functions have been suggested, but no standard has emerged. We emphasize that consistency in the choice of loss functions is crucial. First, for any given model, the loss function used in...