Die Wahl des richtigen Wechselkursregimes hängt für Volkswirtschaften im Transformationsprozess von einer Reihe von Faktoren ab. Hierzu zählen die Liberalisierung der Handels- und Kapitalströme, reforminduzierte inflationäre Tendenzen, die Restrukturierung von Produktion und Export, die...

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...

In this study we examine the impact on Hungary of a possible correction of global imbalances. We distinguished four different channels of the global adjustment process, which are widely referred to in the literature (fiscal tightening in the U.S.; housing price correction in the US; an increase...

For several years after 2001, fiscal policy in Hungary was characterised by expansion, boosting the economy through several channels. As a consequence, while the global economy slowed down temporarily between 2001 and 2003, economic growth remained stable at high levels in Hungary. Due to fiscal...

This paper investigates the trade integration of three Central and Eastern European countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, using the gravity model for trade as an analytical device. Beside the usual variables in such a model, we have also incorporated the FDI variables....

This paper explores the major determinants of the exchange rate pass-through to CPI. The simulations were performed with the Bank's estimated Hungarian block linked to the NIGEM model of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The modelling framework offers some insight...

This paper assesses the effect of monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand. We use three different macromodels, all estimated on Hungarian data of the past 10 years. All three models indicated that after an unexpected monetary policy tightening investments decrease quickly. The...

The paper summarizes the research on forecasting the Hungarian export volume. We elaborated a two-step procedure. In the first step we forecasted foreign demand, then in the second step we forecasted Hungarian export using the best outcome of the first step together with real exchange rate and...

This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable...