This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment. The choice of variables and … their weights in the composite index are determined by their concordance with employment. The composite index is included in … an indicator model to forecast quarterly employment growth. The indicator model explains about 67 percent of the …

represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …

Allocation algorithm. For the forecasting experiment, we select 10 sign-adjusted topics that show strong correlations with GDP … information beyond professional forecasts. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that combining Dynamic Factor … solely on hard data across all forecasting horizons, with the greatest improvements seen in nowcasts. These results …

forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …

product, which in turn are used as an input in the forecasting process. Such forecasts reflect and incorporate the flow of … in a synchronous way. The forecasting power of the dynamic factor model is compared with those of several other models …

policy is not implemented in the same way and the NNAR models are better for inflation forecasting. …

evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low. …