This article provides a macro-foundation for why the specific value of 2% is a valid inflation target. The approach postulates that innovations generate transactional cost savings by comparison to barter. The optimal velocity of money is derived as a function of productivity growth and of...

Economists have argued that a long-term inflation target near 2% is optimal (Summers, 1991; Fischer, 1996; Goodfriend, 2002; Coenen et al., 2003; Bernanke, 2003). However, these arguments are really about why a low positive inflation rate is ideal to avoid a deflationary trap, not explaining why the specific...

The Equity (return) Premium is shown to emerge fully, specifically and episodically from just three transient factors: EPS growth above long term GDP/capita growth; after tax long bond yield below GDP/capita growth, and change in P/E (valuation) - without a risk premium. The earnings/price (E/P)...

Despite being a consumable commodity with price intuitively fluctuating based on marginal supply and demand, this paper proves that the price of oil is driven by a yield measure combining the TIPS yield and an expected inflation derivative

•Bitcoin valuation is largely a function of both the real yield and expected inflation.•Fed assets in relation to real gdp drive the real yield.•Money supply in excess of real gdp drives inflation.•Bitcoin, like gold, faces twin headwinds if the fed sticks with announced policy and...