This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across...

The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes a historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...

Changes in net lending hide the much larger and more variable gross lending flows. We present a series of stylized facts about gross loan flows and how they vary over time, bank size, and the business cycle. We look at both the intensive (increases and decreases) and extensive (entry and exits)...

The authors apply a notion of power, defined for coalitions, which is derived from the Shapley value. They calculate the power of coalitions within a 12-person committee meant to correspond to the FOMC.

An explanation of how irreversible investment and the techniques associated with pricing real options can apply to a broad range of problems in finance, macroeconomics, and trade policy.

Recent advances in asset pricing-the reduced-form approach to pricing risky debt and derivatives-are used to quantitatively evaluate several proposals for mandatory bank issue of subordinated debt. The authors find that credit spreads on both fixed- and floating-rate subordinated debt provide...

Can nominal contracts create monetary nonneutrality if they arise endogenously in general equilibrium? Yes, if (1) agents have complete information about the money stock and (2) shocks to the system are purely redistributive and private information, precluding conventional insurance markets....

A study that uses principal-agent theory to produce quantitative predictions about executive compensation, showing that observed incentives closely match optimal predicted incentives.