A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...

We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post-war U.S. data. Our results suggest that growth uncertainty is associated with higher average growth and lower average inflation. Inflation uncertainty is significantly...