This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable...

Generalized Linear Models are a widely used method to obtain parametric estimates for the mean function. They have been further extended to allow the relationship between the mean function and the covariates to be more flexible via Generalized Additive Models. However the fixed variance...

Generalized Linear Models are a widely used method to obtain parametric estimates for the mean function. They have been further extended to allow the relationship between the mean function and the covariates to be more flexible via Generalized Additive Models. However the fixed variance...

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable...

Generalized Linear Models are a widely used method to obtain parametric estimates for the mean function. They have been further extended to allow the relationship between the mean function and the covariates to be more flexible via Generalized Additive Models. However the fixed variance...

The objective of this paper is to introduce the break preserving local linear (BPLL) estimator for the estimation of unstable volatility functions. Breaks in the structure of the conditional mean and/or the volatility functions are common in Finance. Markov switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and...