This paper presents empirical evidence on the disagreement among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts. In contrast to earlier studies that analyze the range of FOMC forecasts available in the Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, we analyze the forecasts made by each individual...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED real-time database. We consider averages taken over a variety of different bivariate VAR models that are distinguished from one another based upon at least one of the following: which variables are used...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED real-time database. We consider averages taken over a variety of different bivariate VAR models that are distinguished from one another based upon at least one of the following: which variables are used...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the disagreement among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts. In contrast to earlier studies that analyze the range of FOMC forecasts available in the Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, we analyze the forecasts made by each individual...

We examine the effect of toxic exposure on U.S. infant and fetal mortality rates between 1989 and 2002 from toxic pollution released by facilities reporting to the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Unlike previous studies, we control for toxic pollution from mobile sources and from non-TRI...

The U.S. financial growth between 1995 and 2006 certainly translated into record-high shareholder returns. Labor compensation returns were also dramatically high at the onset of the current crisis.

We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.