This article provides empirical evidence from the ‘first wave of globalization’ in the 19th century for the question as to how commodity markets integrated domestically and internationally. I apply a dynamic factor model borrowed from business cycle analysis that for the first time allows me...

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germanys pre WorldWar I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time seriesdata than historical national accounting. To investigate industrializationwe propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...

This paper examines the comovement of the stock market and of real activity inGermany before World War I under the efficient market hypothesis. We employ multivariate spectral analysis to compare rivaling national product estimates to stock market behavior in the frequency domain. Close...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusionindices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economicactivity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which isreversed after...

The study develops two new real wages series for Germany c. 1500-1850 and analyzes their relationship with population size. From 1690 data density allows the estimation of a structural time series model of this relationship. The major results are the following: First, there was a strong negative...

Diese Dissertation befasst sich mit europäischer und US-amerikanischer Konjunkturgeschichte und Marktintegration im 19. und 20. Jahrhundert. Zur Analyse von konjunkturellen Schwankungen stellt sie der weitverbreiteten Historischen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (VGR) die Methode...

This paper examines the comovement of the stock market and of real activity in Germany before World War I under the efficient market hypothesis. We employ multivariate spectral analysis to compare rivaling national product estimates to stock market behavior in the frequency domain. Close...

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany's pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed...